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GIS and analysis of traffic accidents
Mar 30th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

The CrimeMap listserv
is one of the best around for nuts-and-bolts tips.  Most of its
contributors are professional crime analysts (unlike journalists who,
it must be said, are semi-pros at best).  To subscribe, check out http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/maps/listserv.html

One of the folks on Crimemapping made a fine contribution today filled
with “heads-up” tips when it comes to crime mapping. 
Gary
Lopez, a crime analyst for the
Connecticut State Police, suggests….

 
        “The analysis of traffic accidents is an
interesting one.  My perspective is looking at, for the most part,
interstate
highways
.  State Police Departments as a general rule have jurisdiction for
the enforcement of crime, traffic accidents, and motor vehicle enforcement on
interstate highways.  In Connecticut, we are able to pick up a good “X” and “Y”
for every accident.  We then take the data and run it through Spatial Analyst. 
In looking at motor vehicle accidents on interstate highways you may
find:
 
1.   
Some traffic accident hotspots occur in very dangerous areas, ones that do not
lend themselves to offering a great deal of motor vehicle enforcement.  That is
to say, if you use high visibility enforcement you might be in a very congested
area with high traffic volume.  The area is already hazardous and might not
offer any safe area for ticketing.  Enforcement in these areas might actually
contribute to accidents.  I have been told by some veteran officers the “trick”
is to get people in and out of large metropolitan areas as fast as
possible.
 
2.      The design of the highways and surrounding
areas might have a greater effect on accidents than enforcement.  To effectively
lower accidents on interstates you have to have long range plans that include
all agencies that govern the highway.  I believe you will find many of the
traffic accident hotspots on interstates fall right in the middle of where two
or more interstate highways converge.  In Hartford for example, you have I-84
and I-91 intersecting in the middle of the city.  People have to make decisions
on going north and south/east and west.  Of course in the afternoon, you have
that sun in your eyes.  These types of decisions have to be made in seconds, and
for those people not familiar with the area are at even more of a disadvantage. 
Highway design plays a huge factor in highway accidents.
 
3.      In doing time studies of motor vehicle
accidents, many are occurring at changes of shifts, and at peak times where
police services are at a premium.  On interstates, especially around
metropolitan areas you will find most of the accidents are occurring
around 07:00 to 09:00 and then at 15:00 to 18:00.  This is the precise time
people are coming home from work and children getting out from school; a time
that has high demand for all police services.
 
4.   
It is very interesting to plot DWI Accidents, meaning those accidents in which
DWI was the cause of the accident.  You may find that your highest
concentrations of accidents occur near routes going to major universities, large
entertainment complexes, or perhaps to out of state jurisdictions where the
drinking age might be lower or where bars stay open longer.  In these
circumstances select enforcement can be effective.
 
5.   
Careful consideration should be given to areas of the highway that are
undergoing construction.  Police visibility should be present to get people to
slow down. Strict enforcement of speed limits in these areas may yield to a
lower accident rate.
 
In
closing, I believe you will find the most accidents are occurring on interstates
where there are very high volume of cars, little or no highway shoulders, areas
that could benefit from a better design and where interstate highways meet.  The
answer to a reduction to these accidents is a difficult one to find.  Giving out
more tickets is not necessarily the answer.” 
 
Gary
Lopez
Crime
Analysis Unit
Connecticut State Police

Recent Projects Using Systems Thinking Innovatively
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

The Boston Indicators Project, a joint effort of The Boston Foundation and the City of Boston, Massachusetts, used systems thinking in their 2002 report, Creativity & Innovation: A Bridge to the Future. The Foundation worked with systems thinking consultants (Daniel Aronson, Four Profit Inc; Phil Clawson, Community Matters Group; and Brendan Miller and Osamu Uehara of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
to help find a core theme in the changes in the 200 indicators related
to the greater Boston area's economic strength, civic life, community
fabric, health status, diversity, and other areas. As a result, the
report highlights the connections between economic innovation,
transportation, the cost of living, diversity, demographics, and many
other areas.


Principia Cybernetica Web: Cybernetics and Systems Theory
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

The following links provide general background information on the field of Cybernetics and Systems Theory, an interdisciplinary academic domain.

Gene Bellinger: "Introduction to Systems Thinking"
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

“People, when initially introduced to structures, also referred
to as Archetypes, often find them a bit overwhelming. They really
aren't at all difficult once you get used to them. The following
is an introduction to structures and how to read the stories associated
with the diagrams.”


http://www.systems-thinking.org/intst/int.htm

Be sure to work upstream in the URL to see the rest of Bellinger's work.

System Dynamics Society
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

System Dynamics Society
System dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing
complex feedback systems, such as one finds in business and other social
systems. In fact it has been used to address practically every sort of
feedback system. While the word system has been applied to all sorts of
situations, feedback is the differentiating descriptor here. Feedback
refers to the situation of X affecting Y and Y in turn affecting X perhaps
through a chain of causes and effects. One cannot study the link between
X and Y and, independently, the link between Y and X and predict how the
system will behave. Only the study of the whole system as a feedback system
will lead to correct results.

SimVenture – Powerpoint explaining SimVenture and its concepts
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

SimVenture was developed by Vince Guiliani and his colleagues in the late '90.  This PowerPoint is c. 2001.

<b>Xcelsius</b> — IAJ's "Best Digital Tool-of-the-Week"
Mar 26th, 2005 by JTJ

Xcelsius
does magical things for your Excel spreadsheets.  It turns the
numeric data into controlable Flash charts, which can be standalone
“movies,” imported into PowerPoint or sent to colleagues as
click-and-manipulate e-mail.  Check out the Quicktime demos at
http://www.infommersion.com/demos.html

Gallery of Data Visualization
Mar 25th, 2005 by JTJ


This Gallery of Data Visualization displays some examples of the
Best and Worst of Statistical
Graphics
, with the view that the contrast may be useful,
inform current practice, and provide some pointers to both historical and current work.
We go from what is arguably
the best statistical graphic ever drawn,
to the current record-holder for the worst.
See http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/

Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel: A Practical Guide
Mar 25th, 2005 by JTJ


There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years.
For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others,
computers have made it possible to create
models that simulate reality and aid in
making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take
into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios.
The results are then compiled and used to
make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo
simulation is about.


      Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions
given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors…..


     
This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using
Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific
simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples.”


See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html

Problems reading this blog with IE and CSS
Mar 25th, 2005 by JTJ

For yet-to-be-determined reasons, the blog isn't easily viewed today if you're using IE.  However, folks using Mozilla or Firefox seem
to have no problem.  Yet another reason to dump IE.  We're
trying to solve this head scratcher (any suggestions most welcome), but
until we do, fire up any browser but IE.

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