Alfredo Covaleda,
Bogota, Colombia
Stephen Guerin,
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
James A. Trostle,
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
Originally found on TechnologyReview.com
Posted by David Appell at August 30, 2005 08:48 AM in Biotechnology and Health Care.
“There's a very interesting article by John Ioannidis in PLoS Medicine, the free online journal. Most current published research findings might well be false, he says. There are several factors, and I think it's worth presenting them in detail:
1. Many research studies are small, with only a few dozen participants. 2. In many scientific fields, the “effect sizes” (a measure of how much a risk factor such as smoking increases a person’s risk of disease, or how much a treatment is likely to improve a disease) are small. Research findings are more likely true in scientific fields with large effects, such as the impact of smoking on cancer, than in scientific fields where postulated effects are small, such as genetic risk factors for diseases where many different genes are involved in causation. If the effect sizes are very small in a particular field, says Ioannidis, it is “likely to be plagued by almost ubiquitous false positive claims. 3. Financial and other interests and prejudices can also lead to untrue results. 4. “The hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true,” which may explain why we sometimes see “major excitement followed rapidly by severe disappointments in fields that draw wide attention.”
1. Many research studies are small, with only a few dozen participants.
2. In many scientific fields, the “effect sizes” (a measure of how much a risk factor such as smoking increases a person’s risk of disease, or how much a treatment is likely to improve a disease) are small. Research findings are more likely true in scientific fields with large effects, such as the impact of smoking on cancer, than in scientific fields where postulated effects are small, such as genetic risk factors for diseases where many different genes are involved in causation. If the effect sizes are very small in a particular field, says Ioannidis, it is “likely to be plagued by almost ubiquitous false positive claims.
3. Financial and other interests and prejudices can also lead to untrue results.
4. “The hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true,” which may explain why we sometimes see “major excitement followed rapidly by severe disappointments in fields that draw wide attention.”
“This ought to be an eye-opener…. The solution? More publication of preliminary findings, negative studies (which often suffer that fate of the file-drawer effect), confirmations, and refutations. PLoS says, “the editors encourage authors to discuss biases, study limitations, and potential confounding factors. We acknowledge that most studies published should be viewed as hypothesis-generating, rather than conclusive.” And maybe this will temper journalists' tendency to offer every new study as the Next Big Thing.”
Company: Space Imaging Industry: Satellite Image Data Location: Denver, CO, United States of America
State of Arizona to Use Satellite Images as Evidence in Lawsuit
DENVER,CO-– IKONOS satellite imagery has revealed alleged land clearing by a developer in Arizona. The State of Arizona is suing the Scottsdale developer for allegedly illegally bulldozing state and private land known as La Osa Ranch located northwest of the town of Marana, Arizona. Before-and-after satellite images of the area captured by Space Imaging’s IKONOS satellite show certain changes to the environment and will be used as evidence in the case. From a 423-mile-high orbit the satellite can see objects on the ground as small as one meter in size.
Marana’s Geographic Information Systems (GIS) department has been collecting imagery for the last three years to map its expanding boundaries, chart the town's recreational trail system and produce three-dimensional views of proposed developments to provide citizens a glimpse of what their neighborhoods will look like in the future. In mid-2004, Chris Mack, Marana’s senior geographic information systems specialist, discovered the imagery showed that the terrain had been altered at La Osa Ranch. The satellite images captured the alleged land clearing which included 700 acres over four miles from north to south. <more>
ADAM LIPTAK has a piece in this week's NYT Week in Review that is, we gather, a re-write of a forthcoming article in The Georgetown Law Journal. (We're not going to bother with the link because the article isn't posted.) In his story, “If the Law Is an Ass, the Law Professor Is a Donkey,“ Liptak writes, “The study…analyzes 11 years of records reflecting federal campaign contributions by professors at the top 21 law schools as ranked by U.S. News & World Report. “Almost a third of these law professors contribute to campaigns, but of them, the study finds, 81 percent who contributed $200 or more gave wholly or mostly to Democrats; 15 percent gave wholly or mostly to Republicans.The percentages of professors contributing to Democrats were even more lopsided at some of the most prestigious schools: 91 percent at Harvard, 92 at Yale, 94 at Stanford. At the University of Virginia, on the other hand, contributions were about evenly divided between the parties.”
Liptak then continues for 600+ words fretting about the contributions to the Democrats.
Wait a minute. Go back to the phrase underlined above. Two-thirds of the law professors, apparently, didn't make any contributions at all. So where's the story here? Take a look at the graph and let us know.
(This document available at http://www.ver1point0.cjb.net/ ) (Please circulate)
Participants: By invitation based on proposals for submitted papers and presentations. Eight to ten journalists with track records of high-concept involvement in analytic journalism and who have demonstrated in-depth knowledge of database sciences will participate. An equal number of participants will be biomedical researchers, public administrators, data-mining experts, statisticians, forensic accountants, computer scientists and social scientists interested in the problem of database veracity.
· Potential participants are asked to submit a 300- to 500-word abstract of their proposed paper including details on research questions and methodology. Journalists’ papers may address their experience with databases and how they discovered and solved particular problems of data validity. However, all final papers, no longer than 3,500 words, are expected to be at least semi-scholarly in format and follow the American Psychological Association manuscript style. (Final papers shall be submitted before the workshop. All 20 papers will be published in downloadable and hard copy formats; the authors of 12 papers will be asked to make presentations at the workshop.)
· Participants will make all their travel arrangements. (Plan on four-night stay at minimum). [NB: To reach Santa Fe, one flies to Albuquerque, then takes a one-hour shuttle van (approx. $22 each way) to Santa Fe. Santa Fe’s altitude is 7,000+ feet. It often takes at least 24 hours for visitors from lower elevations to adjust, so plan your hotel reservations accordingly.]
Contact: J. T. Johnson, Inst. for Analytic Journalism tom@analyticjournalism.com or 505-577-6482
[1] “Ver” as in “verification” and “verify” and, from the Spanish verb ver: “to see; to look into; to examine.”
It's taken an uncommonly long time, but IAJ co-director Steve Ross and his co-investigators at The Euro RSCG Magnet firm have finally posted some of the summary of their “Survey of Media.” Steve and Don Middleberg have been doing this for more than a decade, first just in the U.S. and internationally for the past few years. Some talking points: * Media appear mixed about blogs’ role in journalism Blogs have not yet infiltrated journalist reporting techniques but have become a source of information * Recent media scandals have challenged media trust New wave of high-profile journalist misdeeds are expected to take a heavy toll on the newsroom * Corporate scandals continue to thwart corporate credibility Journalists point to the lack of transparency for their loss in trust in corporations over the past year * CEOs may be regaining some stature with the media Journalists are more likely to turn to CEOs and consider their performance in their reporting than in 2003
From Gary Price's Resource Shelf: “Toxic Chemicals–United States–Databases Source: NLM New Version of TOXMAP Available “TOXMAP is an interactive web site from the National Library of Medicine that shows the amount and location of reported toxic chemicals released into the environment on maps of the United States. TOXMAP allows users to visually explore information about releases of toxic chemicals by industrial facilities around the United States as reported annually to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).”
The Dallas Morning News crew started publishing last weekend a terrific study of jury selection — or de-selection — in Dallas. Check it out at http://www.dallasnews.com/s/dws/spe/2005/jury/ Striking Differences Racial discrimination in jury selection was a scourge on the Dallas County district attorney's office for decades and was cited recently by the U.S. Supreme Court as it overturned a 1986 death penalty case. The Dallas Morning News spent two years gathering and analyzing jury data from felony court trials to see what had changed.
Key Findings: • Dallas County prosecutors excluded black jurors at more than twice the rate they rejected whites. • Defense attorneys excluded whites at more than three times the rate they rejected blacks. • Even when blacks and whites gave similar answers to key questions asked by prosecutors, blacks were excluded at higher rates. • Blacks ultimately served on juries in numbers that mirror their population primarily because of the dueling prosecution and defense strategies.
Ford Fessenden, of the NYTimes, has yet another strong piece in Thursday's paper, “Health Mystery in New York: Heart Disease.” The lede lays out the perplexing problem in NYC: “Death rates from heart disease in New York City and its suburbs are among the highest recorded in the country, and no one quite knows why.”
But among possible answers — and here especially is where the AJ kicks in — is that there is some “…speculation that doctors in the area may lump deaths with more subtle causes into the heart disease category, making that toll look worse than it actually is.” And “…the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at the health department's request, has sent specialists to determine whether doctors in New York City ascribe causes of death substantially differently.” I know, I know, we're preaching here, but we don't think it can be pointed out too often: journalists and all social scientists cannot simply accept given numbers as a true, valid, honest. We always have to swim up the data-creation stream to determine where, why and from who came the numbers.
By Tamara Thompson Investigations
“This bill would require a local elections official to extend this confidentiality of voter registration information to specified public safety officials, upon application, as specified, for a period of no more than two years, if the local elections official is authorized to do so by his or her county board of supervisors. The application of a public safety official would be a public record.”
By Anna-Maria Mende
As Journalism.co.uk reports US local sites are beginning to experiment with Google Maps. New York State local newspaper Record Online, for example, began to put Google maps on its articles. While reading the article readers can see the location of the story on maps or satellite images. Newspapers are thereby taking advantage of Google in contrast to usual complaints that Google News and Google Ads threaten newspapers.
“Recently, technology firm Daden from Birmingham, UK, developed a tool that combines Google Earth with users' favorite RSS feeds (see previous posting). (Google Earth – unlike Google Maps – shows three-dimensional images.) With this tool readers can select news by location on an international, regional or local map on their computer. Newspapers experimenting with Google Maps works the other way round; showing readers the location of a news story while they are already reading it. Source: Journalism.co.uk“
We wonder when Google will begin licensing its maps to I-o-P publications for inclusion in the hard copy edition.
