Alfredo Covaleda,
Bogota, Colombia
Stephen Guerin,
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
James A. Trostle,
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
The following links provide general background information on the field of Cybernetics and Systems Theory, an interdisciplinary academic domain.
“People, when initially introduced to structures, also referred to as Archetypes, often find them a bit overwhelming. They really aren't at all difficult once you get used to them. The following is an introduction to structures and how to read the stories associated with the diagrams.” http://www.systems-thinking.org/intst/int.htm Be sure to work upstream in the URL to see the rest of Bellinger's work.
System Dynamics Society System dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as one finds in business and other social systems. In fact it has been used to address practically every sort of feedback system. While the word system has been applied to all sorts of situations, feedback is the differentiating descriptor here. Feedback refers to the situation of X affecting Y and Y in turn affecting X perhaps through a chain of causes and effects. One cannot study the link between X and Y and, independently, the link between Y and X and predict how the system will behave. Only the study of the whole system as a feedback system will lead to correct results.
SimVenture was developed by Vince Guiliani and his colleagues in the late '90. This PowerPoint is c. 2001.
Xcelsius does magical things for your Excel spreadsheets. It turns the numeric data into controlable Flash charts, which can be standalone “movies,” imported into PowerPoint or sent to colleagues as click-and-manipulate e-mail. Check out the Quicktime demos at http://www.infommersion.com/demos.html
This Gallery of Data Visualization displays some examples of the Best and Worst of Statistical Graphics, with the view that the contrast may be useful, inform current practice, and provide some pointers to both historical and current work. We go from what is arguably the best statistical graphic ever drawn, to the current record-holder for the worst. See http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/
There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years. For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others, computers have made it possible to create models that simulate reality and aid in making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios. The results are then compiled and used to make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo simulation is about. Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors….. This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples.” See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html
For yet-to-be-determined reasons, the blog isn't easily viewed today if you're using IE. However, folks using Mozilla or Firefox seem to have no problem. Yet another reason to dump IE. We're trying to solve this head scratcher (any suggestions most welcome), but until we do, fire up any browser but IE.
Today's prognostication: Fifty to 100 years from now, historians and demographers will look at the era from 1990 to 2005 as one characterized by intense global population mobility.
Any major city in Southeast Asia these days is loaded with people from throughout that broad region. Any major citiy in Europe is loaded with people from other nations, especially the former USSR, the Mideast and Africa. And the blending of geography, demography and economics makes for fascinating stories IF we have the tools to tease out the interesting and important facts and trends.
The Jan-March 2005 issue of ESRI's ArcUser magazine is especially rich for analytic journalists and the JAGIS [Journalism and GIS] crowd. The latter will be especially interested in:
“GIS Tracks Earnings Sent Home by Mexican Migrants.” The piece, by two geographers from SUNY-Cortland, illustrates the money flow to individual Mexican states. Unfortunately we don't have data and maps showing the U.S. states-of-origin of those dollars, but the methodology will be of interest to geographers and journalists everywhere.
GIS Management is essentially the same as managing a CAR or Analytic Journalism operation in a news organization. The same issue of ArcUser leads with three articles on how to establish successful GIS programs; just replace “GIS” with “AJ” and the concepts translate easily. So check out “Enterpriseing GIS Management” ; “Supporting Successful Enterprise GIS Solutions” ; “Building an Enterprise GIS in a Limited Fiscal Environment“; “Evaluating Enterprise GIS Requirements” and “Powering Up Your Enterprise GIS.”
Finally, the IAJ gang has been promoting performance measurement (and forensic accounting) as important tools for journalists for the past couple years. Another story in ArcUser, “Performance Measurement in Local Government,” illustrates how GIS is a valuable analytic and measurement tool, one which journalists could easily adopt.