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Alternative thinking about the Avian Flu worst-case scenario
November 4th, 2005 by JTJ

Much
of what we've seen and read about the U.S. government's plan to stave
off a pandemic bird flu suggests that everyone — EVERYONE — needs to
be vaccinated.  Even if we knew what is necessary to produce an
appropriate vaccination, producing 280 million doses is not a trivial
task.




But
there may be another strategy that journalists should be asking about:
Isolation strategies and then vaccination of a limited number of
persons in a society.  These strategies have been developed as a
result of work by the simulation modeling folks, especially Josh Epstein at The Brookings Institute.




See — and be sure to click on the videos:
Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror:
An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Joshua M. Epstein, Derek A. T. Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty,
Ramesh M. Singa, and Donald S. Burke
CSED Working Paper No. 31
December 2002





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