Alfredo Covaleda,
Bogota, Colombia
Stephen Guerin,
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
James A. Trostle,
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
We're at the UCLA conference center attending the 4th Lake Arrowhead Conference on Human Complex Systems First take:
Bill Lawless' interesting work finds that groups operating on a “concensus model” are less effective and efficient when compared to “majority model” decision-making groups.
Chasparis' work has implications for journalism institutions IF they understand that they can (should?) be the hub (or node) for facilitating transactions between users and those with the desired resources and/or between the journalistic institution and the community. The presentation is complicated and laden with equations — after all, the authors are in mechanical engineering — but study well their implications of how networks are created and emerge.
What this presentation suggests is that we could model circulation/promotion campaigns by “selling” one subscription to an individual household. Then, having planted that seed of recognition and brand AND assuming that there is neighbor-to-neighbor communication, we fertilize that seed by delivering for free our paper to the immediately adjacent neighbors. And, perhaps, we use stick-on/peel off labels to publicize something special for that node of concentration. Now we have created a potential point of commonality for the neighbors to talk about and, we hope, appreciate. The question then becomes “How can we create added value” for that cluster of subscribers.
Second point raised: Can we model what is the optimum time for prescription offers? Is 13-weeks the best or five? Let's find out.
See Gessler's homepage — http://gessler.bol.ucla.edu/ — for excellent collection of visual and dynamic tools for modeling.
Presentation on residential segregation modeling. “Schelling suggests that segregation can emerge at the active level even if it is not sought by the residents.” Later findings (Bruch and Mare): Segregation increases with indifference to segregation. Why? Not really a lack of indifference. Also, equal granularity in the multicultural function. (See also: http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=60143)
Conclusions:
Interesting discussion of what he terms “discourse communities.” i.e. “Dynamic interplay of cultural resources and situated identities.”
His approach is to apply a number of theoretical metrics (15 models) to building a “society” (based on good anthro data) and see which works best. An approach closely related to exploratory data analysis that analytic journalists often use.
Commonalities of models that worked well: 1) Agents were quasi-optimal (smart) 2) Agents nonetheless diverse (heterogeneous.e.g. individual agents doing different things.)
Interesting related link here for
Good presentation on simulation (computational modeling?) of the Tuberculosis cycle in Tijuana plus looking at models of corruption. He points out that the Chinese population in Tijuana is growing very fast. Interesting, and valuable, application of Maslow's pyramid of needs concepts (i.e starting with the physical needs to social to moral needs.)
Working on integrating Beer's Visable Systems Model with transactional analysis models.
Fifth Session
Objective: to make logistics systems work in/as complex adaptive models.[Essentially, this is about the best — most efficient — way to receive raw materials and deliver the finished product to customers of various types. Could have direct application for publishing industry, if it only knew about such methods.]
They are researching how to build-in RFID chips into products like cars to imbue the product with enough intelligence to, for example, figure out the most optimum way to get itself to a truck or ship.
PlaSMA: Multiagent-based simulation for logistics
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