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4th Lake Arrowhead Conference on Human Complex Systems
April 26th, 2007 by JTJ

We're at the UCLA conference center attending the
4th Lake Arrowhead Conference on Human Complex Systems



First take:

WILLIAM B. ROUSE bill.rouse@ti.gatech.edu
Complex Systems: Phenomena, Characteristics & Research Questions
Rouse tells us that NSF has come to recognize the potential value of Agent Based Modeling.  The agency will, probably in the fall of 2008, issue calls for proposals to do multi-disciplinary research into complex systems and ABM.
See Human/Technology
Interaction in Complex Systems
(Elsevier).



Second take:

W. F. LAWLESS lawlessw@mail.paine.edu, JOSEPH WOOD, & HUI-LIEN TUNG
Organizational Metrics with the Quantum Approach: Constructing an Organization of Quantum Agents

Bill Lawless' interesting work finds that groups operating on a “concensus model” are less effective and efficient when compared to “majority model” decision-making groups.



Third take:

GEORGIOS C. CHASPARIS gchas@seas.ucla.edu & JEFF S. SHAMMA shamma@ucla.edu
“The Emergence of Efficient Social Networks by Dynamic Reinforcement”

Chasparis' work has implications for journalism institutions IF they understand that they can (should?) be the hub (or node) for facilitating transactions between users and those with the desired resources and/or between the journalistic institution and the community.  The presentation is complicated and laden with equations — after all, the authors are in mechanical engineering — but study well their implications of how networks are created and emerge.

What this presentation suggests is that we could model circulation/promotion campaigns by “selling” one subscription to an individual household.  Then, having planted that seed of recognition and brand AND assuming that there is neighbor-to-neighbor communication, we fertilize that seed by delivering for free our paper to the immediately adjacent neighbors.  And, perhaps, we use stick-on/peel off labels to publicize something special for that node of concentration.  Now we have created a potential point of commonality for the neighbors to talk about and, we hope, appreciate.  The question then becomes “How can we create added value” for that cluster of subscribers.

Second point raised: Can we model what is the optimum  time for prescription offers?  Is 13-weeks the best or five?  Let's find out.



Fourth Take (Thur. afternoon):

NICHOLAS GESSLER gessler@ucla.edu
“Intermediated Cultural Cognition: Putting Materiality Back into Simulations”

See Gessler's homepage — http://gessler.bol.ucla.edu/ — for excellent collection of visual and dynamic tools for modeling.



Fifth Take:


Sixth take:


H. JOEL JEFFREY & JASON NADRO jeffrey@cs.niu.edu
“Implementing the Community-Practice Model for Agent-based Simulation”



Seventh take:

    DARIO NARDI darionardi@msn.com
    “Social Neuroscience: Lessons from Exploring Agents’ Minds


Session eight:

MICHAEL W. MACY  mwm14@cornell.edu, ARNOUT V AN DE RIJT, & DAVID SIEGEL
“Neighborhood Chance and Neighborhood Change”

Presentation on residential segregation modeling.  “Schelling suggests that segregation can emerge at the active level even if it is not sought by the residents.”  Later findings (Bruch and Mare): Segregation increases with indifference to segregation.  Why?  Not really a lack of indifference.  Also, equal granularity in the multicultural function.  (See also: http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=60143)

Conclusions: 
Potentially good methods here for researching segregation of a city, but also might be applied to understanding concentrations of newspaper subscriptions and their correlated demographics.


Friday Morning

First session

KLAUS JAFFE Kjaffe@usb.ve  Universidad Simón Bolívar
Sociodynamics: Towards a Fundamental Science of Social Dynamics

A fine demonstration of his modeling tool, SOCIODYNAMICA
   “Sociodynamics is an interdisciplinary attempt to study the dynamics of
complex systems within the conceptual frame of subjects spanning
biology, sociology, politics, history, economy and other sciences.

Second session

DAVID SALLACH sallach@anl.gov
Computational Dialects and Communities of Discourse

Pertinent presentation on the importance of the language used in modeling, the ambiguity of words but the lack of it in terms of agents' action.  Also the need to build in threats & intimidation, humor and irony, etc.

Interesting discussion of what he terms “discourse communities.”  i.e. “Dynamic interplay of cultural resources and situated identities.”


Third session

LARRY KUZNAR kuznar@ipfw.edu
Predicting Risky Behavior in Tribal Societies: Validating Decision Paradigms and Exploring Models

Addresses issue of “deep uncertainty” — experts agree on what the basic theory is, but can't agree on what the parameters and metrics should be.  And in his field, anthropology, can't even agree on what should be the issues and framework.

His approach is to apply a number of theoretical metrics (15 models) to building a “society” (based on good anthro data) and see which works best.  An approach closely related to exploratory data analysis that analytic journalists often use.

Commonalities of models that worked well:
    1) Agents were quasi-optimal (smart)
    2) Agents nonetheless diverse (heterogeneous.e.g. individual agents             doing different things.)



Fourth session

ANTONIO R. DIAZ ardiaz@uabc.mx, SUSAN JONES, LYNNE HALL, MANUEL P. CASTAÑÓN & DORA F. GUTIERREZ
An Approach to Simulating Mobility and Migratory Behavior in Tijuana

Interesting related link here for Agenda Setting Workshop on Social Simulation.

Good presentation on simulation (computational modeling?) of the Tuberculosis cycle in Tijuana plus looking at models of corruption.  He points out that the Chinese population in Tijuana is growing very fast.  Interesting, and valuable, application of Maslow's pyramid of needs concepts (i.e starting with the physical needs to social to moral needs.)

Working on integrating Beer's Visable Systems Model with transactional analysis models.


Topic: FROM HEAT BUGS TO SMART PARTS

Fifth Session

JONATHAN OZIK jozik@anl.gov & DAVID L. SALLACH sallach@anl.gov
Interpretive Heatbugs: Aggressive Acts and Voluntary Contributions


Sixth Session

*) Warmer climate societies tend to be poorer.  (Because the ready availability of food means that the individuals do not have to think long-term.
*) Refutes the idea that “we are blind to emergence.”  Instead points to the “emergence” of academic disciplines.  [So how come some disciplines, e.g. biology, seem to have many more emerging sub-disciplines than those from the Humanities (and especially journalism)?]

Seventh Session:

CHRISTINE WYCISK cwycisk@web.de & BILL MCKELVEY mckelvey@anderson.ucla.edu
“Smart Parts Logistics Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems: How to Design a Model to Manage an Artificial World?”

Objective: to make logistics systems work in/as complex adaptive models.
[Essentially, this is about the best — most efficient — way to receive raw materials and deliver the finished product to customers of various types.  Could have direct application for publishing industry, if it only knew about such methods.]

They are researching how to build-in RFID chips into products like cars to imbue the product with enough intelligence to, for example, figure out the most optimum way to get itself to a truck or ship. 

PlaSMA: Multiagent-based simulation for logistics



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