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Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel: A Practical Guide
Mar 25th, 2005 by JTJ


There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years.
For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others,
computers have made it possible to create
models that simulate reality and aid in
making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take
into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios.
The results are then compiled and used to
make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo
simulation is about.


      Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions
given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors…..


     
This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using
Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific
simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples.”


See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html

Bogus Visual Stats from CNN
Mar 23rd, 2005 by JTJ



Media Matters for America points out a bogus use of bar charts by CNN.  Yes, the scale and base line DO matter.  See http://mediamatters.org/items/200503220005
Update: CNN corrected its chart.

Black Coaches in N.B.A. Have Shorter Tenures
Mar 23rd, 2005 by JTJ



DAVID LEONHARDT and FORD FESSENDEN
of The New York Times delivered a straightforward analytic piece today.  “
Black Coaches in N.B.A. Have Shorter Tenures
is based on fairly basic statistical analysis that suggests that black
coaches, all things being equal, don't stick around as long in the
musical chairs game that is professional sports.  Solid graphics
accompany the story, along with a helpful nerd box.



What is System Dynamics
Mar 17th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

 <>The System Dynamics Group was founded in
the early 1960s by Professor Jay W. Forrester at MIT. At that time, he began
applying what he had learned about systems during his work in electrical engineering
to every day kinds of systems. What makes using system dynamics different
from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops.
Stocks and flows help describe how a system is connected by feedback loops
which create the nonlinearity found so frequently in modern day problems.
Computers software is used to simulate a system dynamics model of the situation
being studied. Running “what if” simulations to test certain policies
on such a model can greatly aid in understanding how the system changes over
time.
See http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/

Links on Cybernetics and Systems
Mar 17th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

For a good jumpstation related to GST, see:
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/CYBSYSLI.html

What is Systems Theory?
Mar 17th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

Systems Theory:
the transdisciplinary study of the abstract organization of phenomena,
independent of their substance, type, or spatial or temporal scale of
existence. It investigates both the principles common to all complex
entities, and the (usually mathematical) models which can be used to
describe them.
See: http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SYSTHEOR.html

Systems theory – info definition meaning
Mar 17th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

Systems theory or general systems theory or systemics is an interdisciplinary Interdisciplinarity article field which studies systems System article as a whole. Systems theory was founded by Ludwig von Bertalanffy Ludwig von Bertalanffy article , William Ross Ashby William Ross Ashby article and others between the 1940s 1940 article and the 1970s 1970 article on principles from physics Physics article , biology Biology article and engineering Engineering article and later grew into numerous fields including philosophy Philosophy article , sociology Sociology article , organizational theory Organizational theory article , management Management article , psychotherapy Psychotherapy article (within family systems therapy Family systems therapy article ) and economics Economics article among others. Cybernetics Cybernetics article is a related field, sometimes considered as a part of systems theory.
See http://www.definition-info.com/Systemics.html

Municipal Performance Measurement Program
Mar 8th, 2005 by JTJ

The
Municipal Performance Measurement Program (MPMP) is an initiative
designed to provide taxpayers with useful information on service
delivery and municipalities with a tool to improve those services over
time. The program requires municipalities to collect data to measure
their performance in 10 core municipal service areas. All relevant
and
current information, including important updates to the program's
requirements and answers to technical questions by service area as
asked by municipalities, have been drawn together in a “one-window”
format.  This is from The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
Housing, Ottawa, Canada, but good materials that can be generalized.

http://www.mah.gov.on.ca/userfiles/HTML/nts_1_5600_1.html
Forensic Economics and Forensic Accounting Bibliography
Mar 6th, 2005 by JTJ

“Will Yancey, a Dallas accountant who specializes in
litigation
support, started compiling bookmarks of his favorite sites in
1995.  Today, his site offers users links to other portals as well
as to legal and political directories.” 
http://www.willyancey.com/forensic.htm


“Portals for Prying”, by Jennifer Saranow, The Wall Street Journal,
Technology Report, September 15, 2003, page R6.

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