Alfredo Covaleda,
Bogota, Colombia
Stephen Guerin,
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
James A. Trostle,
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years. For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others, computers have made it possible to create models that simulate reality and aid in making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios. The results are then compiled and used to make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo simulation is about. Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors….. This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples.” See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html
Media Matters for America points out a bogus use of bar charts by CNN. Yes, the scale and base line DO matter. See http://mediamatters.org/items/200503220005 Update: CNN corrected its chart.
DAVID LEONHARDT and FORD FESSENDEN of The New York Times delivered a straightforward analytic piece today. “Black Coaches in N.B.A. Have Shorter Tenures” is based on fairly basic statistical analysis that suggests that black coaches, all things being equal, don't stick around as long in the musical chairs game that is professional sports. Solid graphics accompany the story, along with a helpful nerd box.
<>The System Dynamics Group was founded in the early 1960s by Professor Jay W. Forrester at MIT. At that time, he began applying what he had learned about systems during his work in electrical engineering to every day kinds of systems. What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use of feedback loops. Stocks and flows help describe how a system is connected by feedback loops which create the nonlinearity found so frequently in modern day problems. Computers software is used to simulate a system dynamics model of the situation being studied. Running “what if” simulations to test certain policies on such a model can greatly aid in understanding how the system changes over time. See http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/
For a good jumpstation related to GST, see: http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/CYBSYSLI.html
Systems Theory: the transdisciplinary study of the abstract organization of phenomena, independent of their substance, type, or spatial or temporal scale of existence. It investigates both the principles common to all complex entities, and the (usually mathematical) models which can be used to describe them. See: http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SYSTHEOR.html
Systems theory or general systems theory or systemics is an interdisciplinary Interdisciplinarity article field which studies systems System article as a whole. Systems theory was founded by Ludwig von Bertalanffy Ludwig von Bertalanffy article , William Ross Ashby William Ross Ashby article and others between the 1940s 1940 article and the 1970s 1970 article on principles from physics Physics article , biology Biology article and engineering Engineering article and later grew into numerous fields including philosophy Philosophy article , sociology Sociology article , organizational theory Organizational theory article , management Management article , psychotherapy Psychotherapy article (within family systems therapy Family systems therapy article ) and economics Economics article among others. Cybernetics Cybernetics article is a related field, sometimes considered as a part of systems theory. See http://www.definition-info.com/Systemics.html
“Will Yancey, a Dallas accountant who specializes in litigation support, started compiling bookmarks of his favorite sites in 1995. Today, his site offers users links to other portals as well as to legal and political directories.” http://www.willyancey.com/forensic.htm “Portals for Prying”, by Jennifer Saranow, The Wall Street Journal, Technology Report, September 15, 2003, page R6.