We have long admired and appreciated the work of Dartmouth Professor J. Laurie Snell and his colleagues at the CHANCE project.  (There are some terrific online lectures on all phases of statistics and probability at the Chance Lectures)



We received the following recently:

In order to give Chance News the chance for a longer life we have changed it to
a ChanceWiki. The new url
is

http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/



For the ChanceWiki we
are using the software developed for the very successful free Encyclopedia
Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/



The wiki software makes
it easy for anyone to add an item or to make changes in an existing article
(hopefully an improvement) in the current Chance News.



On the Main Page
of the ChanceWiki you will find links to the current Chance news and “How to
submit a new article or edit an existing article”.



We hope you will try
making a contribution. If you have any questions I will be happy to try to
answer them.



J. Laurie Snell



jlsnell@dartmouth.edu

One
of the things we've learned in the past decade is that journalists and
police departments often are asking the same questions and use — or
could use — many of the same methods to analyze data.  In fact,
we would argue that crime analysts and criminologists are doing some of
the best work in the social sciences today. 

One of
the issues of import to both professions is racial profiling.  A
recent publication from the U.S. Dept. of Justice suggests some methods
for analyzing the that data.

A Suggested Approach to Analyzing Racial
Profiling: Sample Templates for Analyzing Car-Stop Data

Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Office
of Community Oriented Policing Services

A Suggested Approach to Analyzing Racial
Profiling: Sample Templates for Analyzing Car-Stop Data (PDF; 468 KB)

“Decisions regarding the merits of
racial profiling concerns are important and should not be based on either
anecdotal evidence or incomplete analysis. Evaluating the extent and nature of
police profiling patterns may lead to decisions regarding proper training and
appropriate police tactics. It is crucial that such evaluations rely on
appropriate methodological approaches, objectively obtained data, and
appropriate benchmarks or comparison guidelines.“

Today's New York Times Science Section
carries a column by Richard Friendman, M.D. about the challenge of
explaining statistical concepts and probability to anyone.  (Even
journalists?)  His conclusion: “The
truth is that random events can make or break us.  It is more
comforting to believe in the power of hard work and merit than to think
that probability reigns not only in the casino but in daily life.”

So there.



See: “Mix Math and Medicine and Create Confusion.”

Dan Gillmor picks up a story from California's Contra Costa Times about
a Republican operative who has been sending phony letters-to-the-editor
bashing Demos, more than 200 letters for the past 10 years.



 

According to the CC Times story….



“”Bogus
letters have a tremendous effect on the readers,” Times Editorial Page
editor Dan Hatfield said. “People need to be able to know that the
letters to the editor are real people, writing about real issues. They
need to be able to believe what they read in the newspaper. The
discovery of false letters makes the reader wonder about the veracity
of the opinions on our pages….

“Hatfield said the paper has tightened its policy, but there is no way to screen writers intent on breaking the rules….



“The Times, [San Francisco] Chronicle and [Tri-Valley] Herald have similar
letter to the editor verification policies. A writer must provide his
or her resident city and phone number. A newspaper employee then calls
the writer to verify that they sent it in.



“Unfortunately,
there is not a fail-safe way that I have found. No matter how elaborate
the system one designs, there is always some knucklehead out there who
wants to ruin it for everyone by proving that he or she can beat it.”



Maybe not a “fail-safe” way to stop this Astro-turfing, but stronger controls would be possible if an organization like the American Press Institute or Newspaper Association of American
would create an online data base that all newspapers could have access
to.  The calling-to-check approach is pretty standard in the
business.  Each letters editor could enter the pertinent info on
the writers they decide to publish into the data base.  It
wouldn't take much programming to do some automated data mining on
phone numbers and/or cities or addresses or spelling patterns of names
for flags to be raised.  Sure, someone could always have a couple
phone numbers and even a couple mailing addresses.  But 200? 

As to text analysis that could be applied to the language of the
letters-to-the-editors, see the IAJ link lower right to Don Foster's
book, Author Unknown.

WHAT: Math for Journalists, a new and interactive online course and reference tool

WHO:
Written by Debbie Wolfe, technology training editor, St. Petersburg
Times; designed by Casey Frechette, Poynter NewsU course administrator
and Flash wizard

WHEN: Available beginning today, Mon., April 11, 2005 at 9 a.m. EDT (US)

WHERE: It's available where you are and when you need it. Just log onto the Web even if you only have a 56K dial-up modem.

HOW:
FREE thanks to the Poynter Institute and the Knight Foundation; just
spend a few moments registering at Poynter's NewsU Web site at http://www.newsu.org

WHY:
Because many journalists need an easy to understand, available 24/7 and
free resource to turn to for self-help with math. The content of the
course is the collective wisdom of plenty of gifted math types written
by one who is not, so it's the best of both worlds. Enjoy!



Background about the Math for Journalists course:

    
For the past 30 years, one of my professional goals has been to make
routine math more routine for myself and other journalists. So, with
this goal in mind, the NewsU staff at Poynter has helped me create an
online and very interactive Math for Journalists course.

    
Today just also happens to be the formal launch day for NewsU,
Poynter's online university for journalists. You'll learn more about
NewsU from official messages sent out to the industry by Poynter.

    
In the Math for Journalists course, there are six theme areas packed
with step-by-step formulas (I like to think of these as recipes),
recipes for double checking your work, pop-up screens with common
English tips, story examples, public records data examples and skill
drills. And, by the way, the drills have plenty of skill levels to
choose from so everyone will be challenged.

     The entire course has been written and designed to be used in the following ways:

1. LINEAR – Start from the beginning and work your way through

2. TOPICAL – Choose the order that makes the most sense to you

3.
DEADLINE – Go right to the topic you need at that moment in time. The
formulas and examples are right there without any fluff.

     Here's an outline of what's included in the initial launch:

1. REFRESHERS, includes terms and syntax; order of operations; and, fractions

2. BACKGROUNDERS, includes warm-up exercises; Web resources; and, math helpers

3. PERCENTS OF ALL KINDS, including percent change; percent of total; and, percentage point vs. percent

4. AVERAGES AND MORE, including mean; median; and, mode

5. NUMBER RELATIONSHIPS, including ratio; rank; and, rates with a special section on millage rates

6. ADVANCED TOPICS, including cost of living; weighted averaging; and, estimating the size of a crowd



    
Take the course for a spin in whole or in part, then let me know what
you think. As I hear about suggestions, additions will be made. “Just
in time” newsroom math help and reference 24/7. Free. Forever. Now, is
this cool or what?!



Cheers!

Debbie Wolfe

Technology Training Editor

St. Petersburg Times

800-333-7505, ext. 2919

727-892-2919

Preferred e-mail: dpwolfe@peoplepc.com

Also, check these out these two Web sites:

(1) http://canyonwolfephoto.com

(2) http://usfspconvergence.blogspot.com

Xcelsius
does magical things for your Excel spreadsheets.  It turns the
numeric data into controlable Flash charts, which can be standalone
“movies,” imported into PowerPoint or sent to colleagues as
click-and-manipulate e-mail.  Check out the Quicktime demos at http://www.infommersion.com/demos.html

There are many things that faster computers have made possible in recent years.
For [journalists], scientists, engineers, statisticians, managers, investors, and others,
computers have made it possible to create models that simulate reality and aid in
making predictions. One of the methods for simulating real systems is the ability to take
into account randomness by investigating hundreds of thousands of different scenarios.
The results are then compiled and used to make decisions. This is what Monte Carlo
simulation is about.

      Monte Carlo simulation is often used in business for risk and decision analysis, to help make decisions
given uncertainties in market trends, fluctuations, and other uncertain factors…..

     
This article will guide you through the process of performing a Monte Carlo simulation using
Microsoft Excel. Although Excel will not always be the best place to run a scientific
simulation, the basics are easily explained with just a few simple examples.”

See http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html

Media Matters for America points out a bogus use of bar charts by CNN.  Yes, the scale and base line DO matter.  See http://mediamatters.org/items/200503220005
Update: CNN corrected its chart.

DAVID LEONHARDT and FORD FESSENDEN
of The New York Times delivered a straightforward analytic piece today.  “Black Coaches in N.B.A. Have Shorter Tenures”
is based on fairly basic statistical analysis that suggests that black
coaches, all things being equal, don't stick around as long in the
musical chairs game that is professional sports.  Solid graphics
accompany the story, along with a helpful nerd box.