Alfredo Covaleda,
Bogota, Colombia
Stephen Guerin,
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
James A. Trostle,
Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
GIS software discount for IRE members Return to IRE Training
Members of Investigative Reporters and Editors, Inc., qualify for discounts on geographic information system (GIS) software from ESRI, the publisher of ArcView. ESRI is offering ArcView GIS single use licenses at no charge to IRE members who agree to attend a GIS training event conducted by IRE and NICAR or ESRI. Purchasers must sign a three-year maintenance agreement with ESRI at a cost of $ 400 a year, with the first year's fee waived. ArcView, the GIS program most widely used by journalists, lists for $1,500. During the maintenance agreement period, purchasers will receive software upgrades and technical support.
IRE members must attend a qualifying training session within one year of entering the agreement with ESRI, which is based in Redlands Calif., and has been a regular exhibitor at the annual IRE and CAR conferences. Qualifying sessions are IRE and NICAR's Mapping Data for News Stories mini-boot camp, offered two times a year with the next scheduled for Jan. 6-8, 2006; an online ESRI Virtual Campus course, and ESRI classroom training.
For more information about IRE and NICAR training visit IRE Training . For more information about ESRI training see www.esri.com/training_events.html. IRE members can also purchase discounted extension programs, which expand the analytical capabilities of ArcView. The single-license cost for Spatial Analyst, 3D Analyst and Geostatistical Analyst is $1,500 each. That is a 40 percent discount off the list price of $2,500 each. To obtain an order form, please contact John Green, membership services coordinator for IRE, at jgreen@ire.org or 573-882-2772.
The concept of Power Law distributions is attracting growing interest, especially among folks in the Complexity and Complex Adaptive Systems communities. For journalists, some of the math involved is somewhat more complex than the elementary descriptive statistics we deal with, but it's not that tough to grasp the implications of research probing Power Laws as they apply to various phenomena.
Here's a perspective on global warfare that might prompt some deep contemplation for journalists.
Original source: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2005/09/wars_new_equili.html
“In technology, particularly in information based systems, advances can occur almost overnight. This likely applies to warfare as it becomes more information-based. As in technology, patterns and methods of warfare tend to stay within bounded equilibria depending on the type of war being fought. When an improvement arrives, the equilibrium point changes and warfare undergoes a rapid shift.
One of the ways to measure a equilibrium point was first demonstrated by Lewis Richardson over 50 years ago. He calculated that the distribution of casualties in conventional wars follow a power law distribution. Updates to his work show that this pattern of distribution continues to hold.
In a new paper by Johnson, Spagat, and others called “From Old Wars to New Wars and Global Terrorism,” ( PDF) — http://xxx.lanl.gov/pdf/physics/0506213/ — the authors demonstrate that a new pattern of war is emerging. To do this, they analyzed the frequency-intensity distributions of wars (including terrorism) and examined their power law curves. They found that conventional wars had a power law exponent of 1.8. An analysis of terrorism since 1968 found that the exponents were 1.71 (for G7 countries) and 2.5 (for non-G7 countries). This makes sense, conventional wars and G7 terrorism are both characterized by periods of relative non-activity followed by high casualty events (highly orchestrated battles). Non-G7 terrorism is a more decentralized and ad hoc type of warfare characterized by numerous small engagements and fewer large casualty events.
Here's where the analysis gets interesting. When the author's examined the data from Colombia and Iraq, they found that both wars evolved towards the coefficient for non-G7 terrorism (although from different directions). This finding doesn't fit the prevailing theories of warfare. A conventional understanding of fourth generation warfare , such the one posited by Thomas Hammes in the Sling and the Stone posit that 4th generation warfare began in earnest with Mao. However, within Mao's formulation (and Ho Chi Minh's variant), guerrilla wars are but a prelude to conventional war to seize control of the state. The power law for these wars should, based on this theory, tend towards the coefficient we see for conventional wars. In fact, we see the opposite. Guerrilla wars in both Colombia and Iraq have stabilized at a coefficient far from conventional warfare.
This has broad implications for 4th generation warfare theory — which clearly dominated the types of wars we saw in the latter half of the twentieth century. The patterns of conflict we see today in Colombia and Iraq are a break from the previous framework (which may be an example of punctuated equilibrium). Unlike the previous models of guerrilla wars which sought to replace the state, these new wars have moved to a level of decentralization that makes them both unable to replace the state and extremely hard to eliminate. Is this new evolutionary equilibrium a fifth generation of warfare? It is extremely likely. This new form of warfare, or what I call open source warfare, is what this site (and my book) is dedicated to understanding.”
Originally found on TechnologyReview.com
Posted by David Appell at August 30, 2005 08:48 AM in Biotechnology and Health Care.
“There's a very interesting article by John Ioannidis in PLoS Medicine, the free online journal. Most current published research findings might well be false, he says. There are several factors, and I think it's worth presenting them in detail:
1. Many research studies are small, with only a few dozen participants. 2. In many scientific fields, the “effect sizes” (a measure of how much a risk factor such as smoking increases a person’s risk of disease, or how much a treatment is likely to improve a disease) are small. Research findings are more likely true in scientific fields with large effects, such as the impact of smoking on cancer, than in scientific fields where postulated effects are small, such as genetic risk factors for diseases where many different genes are involved in causation. If the effect sizes are very small in a particular field, says Ioannidis, it is “likely to be plagued by almost ubiquitous false positive claims. 3. Financial and other interests and prejudices can also lead to untrue results. 4. “The hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true,” which may explain why we sometimes see “major excitement followed rapidly by severe disappointments in fields that draw wide attention.”
1. Many research studies are small, with only a few dozen participants.
2. In many scientific fields, the “effect sizes” (a measure of how much a risk factor such as smoking increases a person’s risk of disease, or how much a treatment is likely to improve a disease) are small. Research findings are more likely true in scientific fields with large effects, such as the impact of smoking on cancer, than in scientific fields where postulated effects are small, such as genetic risk factors for diseases where many different genes are involved in causation. If the effect sizes are very small in a particular field, says Ioannidis, it is “likely to be plagued by almost ubiquitous false positive claims.
3. Financial and other interests and prejudices can also lead to untrue results.
4. “The hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true,” which may explain why we sometimes see “major excitement followed rapidly by severe disappointments in fields that draw wide attention.”
“This ought to be an eye-opener…. The solution? More publication of preliminary findings, negative studies (which often suffer that fate of the file-drawer effect), confirmations, and refutations. PLoS says, “the editors encourage authors to discuss biases, study limitations, and potential confounding factors. We acknowledge that most studies published should be viewed as hypothesis-generating, rather than conclusive.” And maybe this will temper journalists' tendency to offer every new study as the Next Big Thing.”
Company: Space Imaging Industry: Satellite Image Data Location: Denver, CO, United States of America
State of Arizona to Use Satellite Images as Evidence in Lawsuit
DENVER,CO-– IKONOS satellite imagery has revealed alleged land clearing by a developer in Arizona. The State of Arizona is suing the Scottsdale developer for allegedly illegally bulldozing state and private land known as La Osa Ranch located northwest of the town of Marana, Arizona. Before-and-after satellite images of the area captured by Space Imaging’s IKONOS satellite show certain changes to the environment and will be used as evidence in the case. From a 423-mile-high orbit the satellite can see objects on the ground as small as one meter in size.
Marana’s Geographic Information Systems (GIS) department has been collecting imagery for the last three years to map its expanding boundaries, chart the town's recreational trail system and produce three-dimensional views of proposed developments to provide citizens a glimpse of what their neighborhoods will look like in the future. In mid-2004, Chris Mack, Marana’s senior geographic information systems specialist, discovered the imagery showed that the terrain had been altered at La Osa Ranch. The satellite images captured the alleged land clearing which included 700 acres over four miles from north to south. <more>
The Dallas Morning News crew started publishing last weekend a terrific study of jury selection — or de-selection — in Dallas. Check it out at http://www.dallasnews.com/s/dws/spe/2005/jury/ Striking Differences Racial discrimination in jury selection was a scourge on the Dallas County district attorney's office for decades and was cited recently by the U.S. Supreme Court as it overturned a 1986 death penalty case. The Dallas Morning News spent two years gathering and analyzing jury data from felony court trials to see what had changed.
Key Findings: • Dallas County prosecutors excluded black jurors at more than twice the rate they rejected whites. • Defense attorneys excluded whites at more than three times the rate they rejected blacks. • Even when blacks and whites gave similar answers to key questions asked by prosecutors, blacks were excluded at higher rates. • Blacks ultimately served on juries in numbers that mirror their population primarily because of the dueling prosecution and defense strategies.
We recently enjoyed meeting Stuart Kasdin at a Netlogo workshop. Stuart spent some years in the Peace Corps, then a decade with the OMB (Office of Budget Management). Currently he's working on his doctorate in Poly Sci at UC-Santa Barbara.
Stuart has also been thinking about “performance measurement,” the term-of-art used by auditors and managers of government agencies. (In the private sector, the term often used is “forensic accounting.”) We have generally thought well of performance measurement, especially as a vocabulary and tool journalists should know about to better understand and evalutate the performance of government. Stuart, however, has thought about this in greater depth, and from the perspective of someone inside the government. His paper, “When Do Results Matter? Using Budget Systems to Enhance Program Performance and Agency Management” is worthwhile reading. ABSTRACT: “Managing by results” is a widely used public budgeting approach based on developing performance measures that display the progress of a program toward its stated objectives. This paper considers the complex environment of government budgeting and how to establish budget systems that can successfully encourage improved performance by managers. The paper assesses the limitations in how governments currently apply performance budgeting and suggests ways that it might be made more effective. First, performance measures must be individually tractable and simple, as well as be coherent and revealing in the context of other program performance targets. In addition, performance budgeting must distinguish between program needs based on environmental changes and those based on management related decisions. Finally, the paper argues that multi-task, complex-goal programs will typically result in low-powered incentives for program managers. This outcome results because, even apart from information obstacles, program managers will be rewarded or punished on only a component of the program, representing a small fraction of the total program performance when performance measures as increase. A partial solution is to ensure that the number of policy instruments is not smaller than the number of targets.” Click here to read the Kasdin paper.
A recent profile of mathematician-turned-geneticist Philip Green is a good-read introduction to bio-informatics, and bio-informatics just might produce some methodologies journalists can use to validate public records databases.
The article, “Bioinformatics,” is in the quarterly published by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Some highlights:
* Using a detailed computational model, [researchers] found that some kinds of [genetic] mutations occur at constant rates, like the ticking of a clock, which makes them useful for dating evolutionary events. Other kinds of mutations occur at varying rates de-pending on the generation times of the organism. This information in turn makes it much easier to identify parts of the genome that exhibit different patterns of change over time, indicating that the DNA in those regions is subject to selection and therefore playing a functional role. The idea, says Green, is to separate the noise of meaningless changes in DNA so that the signals of consequential changes emerge clearly from the background.” Journalists could look at which elements are changed in a data base and how often as a clue for the importance of the data base and the relative importance of various elements.
* “The main issue [in biology and genomics] is how quantitative we’re going to be able to get,” [Green] says. “Most people will accept the idea that we will know qualitatively how things are interacting with each other. But what you really want is a quantitative result, so that you can change the levels of one component and predict how it will affect the system.”
* “Back then, [says a colleague of Green’s] we wondered if there was a need for mathematics in biology. In the mid-1980s, there weren’t a lot of data. Biology was about analyzing the notes in your lab book. “In the last 20 years, biology has become dominated by huge data sets. Now it’s an exception rather than the rule to publish a paper that does not draw on large databases of biological information. Mathematical analysis has become a funda-mental part of biological research. It has turned out to be of equal importance to experimentation.” Take a look at the article. It suggests some parallels of investigation for analytic journalism.
We're pleased that the PBS program “Frontline” is keeping up the good fight to produce important journalism. And thanks to the Librarian's Index to the Internet for pointing us to: Private Warriors
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/warriors/ Subjects: Government contractors — United States | Public contracts — United States | Private security services | United States — Armed Forces — Management | New this week Created by je – last updated Jul 6, 2005
Be sure to drill down to the section, “Does Privatization Save Money.” A nice example of a reporter asking the right questions.
One of the foundational cross-over disciplines we think are of value to journalists is Forensic Accounting, at least that's the term used when applied in business. (It's “performance measurement” when talking about government.) One of the basic measurements in forensic accounting is to compare the percent of dollar distribution by type or sector in one instution to the percent of dollar distribution in a comparable institution. So it is that we were please to see Glen Justice dipping into the forensic accountants toolbox in Wednesday's NYTimes in his story “For a Lobbyist, Seat of Power Came With a Plate.” The story is about how lobbyist, and Tom Delay pal, Jack Abramoff apparently used his own restaurant in Washington, Signatures, as a place to meet and greet legislators. He just forgot to give them a check. Justice wrote:
“…While Signatures was popular, it struggled to make money, according to employees and documents.
'Mr. Abramoff and his companies invested more than $3 million in Signatures from January 2002 to May 2003, records show. At the same time, he and his employees gave away tens of thousands of dollars in food, wine and liquor, the records show. That includes menu prices for Mr. Abramoff's own food and drink, as well as employee discounts and free meals given by restaurant managers and staff, according to the records. Nationwide, the median expense for marketing, including free meals and drinks, was about 3.5 percent of sales for expensive restaurants like Signatures that spend the most on such promotions, according to the National Restaurant Association. One national restaurant consultant, Clark Wolf, said the figure can go as high as 5 percent.
'At Signatures, free meals and drinks for managers and guests alone were about 7 percent of revenues for the restaurant's first 17 months, according to former employees and financial records. Mr. Blum, the spokesman for Mr. Abramoff, disputed that percentage.”
Seems like pretty basic reporting, but more reporters would do well to make that one more call if they want to establish context in their stories.
Paul Walmsley, a programming wiz at IRE, has developed a neat PERL script for doing a bit of Social Network Analysis online at the IRE site.
“JustLooking” is a members-only tool that has been up for a year, Walmsley said, but lacking publicity, it’s been pretty much backstage. The app is a relatively basic, yet impressive tool whose results are designed to be integrated/imported into UCInet, an early SNA tool.
“JustLooking” comes, so far, with two network templates to save time in common situations. * Campaign Finance: for tracking campaign dollars * Rolodex: for entering basic networks of people and organizations
Dig out your IRE membership number and check it out.
